The intensification of globalization and integration processes necessitates the synchronization of economic relations that are formed within the country in accordance with the challenges of the external environment. In the context of the dynamic transformation of the national economy and the system of world economic relations as a whole, the strategic importance of certain sectors of the economy is changing to ensure the progressive development of the entire state. The exceptional importance of the market is determined by its functions, the main of which are to ensure the accumulation of resources and their redistribution between donor and recipient entities. In addition, the domestic market acts as a kind of measure of the stability of the economic situation in the country, since the recession in the market causes stagnation in production, and vice versa. It is also worth noting that any trading platform is a complex system, which from an organizational point of view can be represented as a combination of various segments with its own characteristics and patterns of development. Therefore, there is an objective need to study the domestic market, as well as the problems and prospects of its development, which will improve the performance of both individual institutions and the market as a whole.
Relevance of the topic
The economic activity of any manufacturer is doomed to failure if it does not have information on the prospects for the development of the market, its capacity, supply and demand, as well as the level of competition, etc. Some enterprises are already taking their first steps in this area, however, the relative novelty of marketing analysis The absence of scientific and methodological approaches oriented towards this sphere of activity leads to the episodic use of individual elements of analysis and does not produce tangible results. At the same time, the lack of market forecasting leads in some cases to significant financial losses for the enterprise. This determines the need for marketing analysis of the market.
Research and publications
Theoretical and practical aspects of marketing analysis are reflected in the scientific works of both foreign and domestic scientists and economists: I. Berezina, V. Voilenko, T. Derevenko, V. Karpova, A. Kovalev, D. Kostyukhin, V. Kucherenko, F. Levshina, S. Nikitin, E. Peshkova, F. Piskoppel, T. Ryzhova, S. Skibinsky and others. However, in their works little attention is paid to marketing research of the market, its indicators. And these issues are relevant and require further research. The goal is to determine the essence of the marketing analysis of the market and to characterize the main stages of its implementation. It is worth noting that market analysis is one of the most complex types marketing research. After all, its subject is the establishment of the main development trends, its fluctuations, as well as the assessment of potential and basic proportions. Market analysis should be carried out in a certain sequence:
- research of the main features and characteristics of the market;
- assessment of the dynamics of growth of structural elements of the situation;
- development of a system of market indicators;
- accumulation and collection of market information;
- monitoring of factors having an impact on market conditions;
- forecasting market conditions and the choice of forecasting methods.
At the first stage, markets are classified according to different indicators depending on the objectives of market research and identify features, since a separate type of market will determine in the future the methods of its research and the range of indicators for analysis.
The second stage focuses on assessing the dynamics of growth of structural elements of the market and involves the use of certain methods of market analysis.
It is proposed to consider the structural elements of the situation as demand, supply and price, as follows from the definition of the market. The following methods are used in the marketing analysis of the market:
- economic system-wide analysis;
- economic and statistical;
- economic and mathematical.
Economic Indicators
The emergence of the concept of "market conditions" in its modern sense is associated with the delimitation of areas of study of economic conditions at different levels. Considering this issue at the macroeconomic level, the researchers used it as a general economic concept, which provided for the inclusion of indicators on a global scale, and the concept of the economic cycle was identified with the situation.
World market conditions are characterized by voluminous, effective, structural indicators; indicators of international trade intensity, as well as indicators of the effectiveness of foreign economic operations. In turn, the microeconomic approach provides for the separation of certain groups of indicators, united mainly by industry, which characterized a separate market.
In the framework of this approach, the fluctuations in the conditions of individual trading floors were individual, and the system of cycles characterized the general economic situation.
Analysis of modern literary sources indicates the ambiguity of existing approaches to the interpretation of the essence of the concept of "market conditions". In the process of researching approaches to determining the essence of this concept, it was revealed that most scientists characterize it as a combination of a certain number of factors (conditions, indicators, elements) that reflect the situation on the market. At the same time, individual authors also emphasize the existence of a relationship between certain factors, since the magnitude of the impact of a certain factor on the final situation may vary depending on its interaction with others.
Defining the list of indicators that are part of the indicators of economic marketing, one group of scientists is limited to signs that characterize the ratio of supply and demand, while others also include indicators of competition and prices or determine market conditions by their areas of origin (economic, political, social, etc.) . P.).
Market Analysis Methods
The main methods of market analysis are comparison, visual-graphic methods, and balance methods. The most widely used in marketing analysis is a comparison in which market conditions are compared with those that are predicted. This method is the most common, as it makes it possible to compare the phenomena and evaluate the changes occurring in them. The result of the comparison is the calculation of relative and absolute deviations (dynamics) of the indicators of the reporting and base period. It is the method of comparisons that allows you to timely determine the degree of risk for subsequent planning and development of an enterprise development strategy.
It is advisable to use this method when segmenting the market, studying the market by types of goods, their assortment, quality, etc. In market analysis, independent importance is given to visual-graphical methods that are used to visually reflect the results of marketing research.In general, these methods are reduced to the construction of graphs and tables, sometimes instead of them they use pie, sector, strip, and curly diagrams. These tools in a vivid and attractive form depict the relationship between the individual indicators and reveal their structure for visual comparison.
Economic and mathematical methods of marketing analysis of the market include general mathematical methods for calculating economic indicators and mathematical modeling. Of great importance among general mathematical methods are risk assessment methods, commercial and financial calculations for market analysis. One of the important methods of marketing research is mathematical modeling. A mathematical model is a system of mathematical formulas, irregularities or equations that adequately describes the phenomena and processes inherent in an object.
It is also considered advisable to use in marketing research of the market and economic and statistical methods with which structural indicators for processing and studying time series are determined. They include correlation and regression analysis series of dynamics, index method, analysis of the dynamics of the situation, the method of average values, analysis of time fluctuations, as well as a group of heuristic methods. In today's rather difficult time, more and more specialists are turning to the correlation and regression option, because with it you can identify the influence of various factors, for example, on the market share of the company, production costs, business risks, and the like.
Conjuncture indicators
It is worth noting that the analysis and forecasting is significantly complicated by the fact that indicators that reflect the state of the market are somewhat conditional and relative in determining the strength of the action of individual market-forming factors. When using individual data, it should be borne in mind that part of them directly reflects changes in market conditions.
Other indicators can be used as indirect evidence of the presence of processes or trends that are developing. This may relate to data on competition in the market under study, its trends, level of monopolization, etc. Many scientists adhere to this opinion, although they have a different approach to the formation of a set of indicators. So, according to F. Piskoppel, market conditions for forecasting and analysis should have indicators of production (industry, construction, agriculture, transport), commodity and money circulation, and consumption. It is necessary to pay attention to the fact that, in addition to general data, there should be separate ones that will take into account the particularities of development of certain industries.
S. V. Skibinsky argues that the conjuncture product market can be characterized using indicators such as cash incomes of the population, the structure of their expenditures, the volume of purchases of goods in physical and value terms, the ratio of prices, the structure and volume of inventories, etc.
F. M. Levshin defines the study indicators "as a tool for the quantitative assessment of changes in the markets under the influence of various factors." Here, the author identifies the levels of market conditions, consisting of six groups of indicators: foreign trade; domestic turnover; industrial production; dynamics of investments in fixed assets; order; monetary sphere.
Another opinion regarding indicators has D.I. Kostyukhin. He identifies indicators of development and condition of the branches of material production, commodity exchange of the sphere and consumption, the monetary sphere. So, in particular, V.R. Kucherenko and V.A. Karpov distinguish such groups of volumetric economic indicators which are characterized by market conditions: market supply; market demand; proportionality of the market; market development dynamics; business activity; commercial risk. The proposed system includes the main most used data that can be used in market analysis, and is necessary to determine the moments of the fracture and the prospects for the development of the market, that is, to make a forecast for changes in market conditions. The information base must meet certain requirements:
- have an organized database structure;
- update the database with the necessary frequency;
- have a well-established analytical marketing system.
The structure of the analytical system should include a model bank and a statistical bank.
Market Research
Currently, market research is impossible without the use of specialized workstations and computers, because this work is associated with large amounts of information, which often have a rather complicated internal structure. In addition, the analysis of market conditions requires the implementation of laborious calculations and graphical constructions. At the present time, quite effective software developments are available and exist for use that allow you to quickly process and use market information for making management decisions. The most common and used is Microsoft Excel. Its main advantage is the complexity and combination of a large number of calculation functions, the possibility of graphical constructions.
The use of PCs in market research is possible under the following conditions:
- creation of an information database;
- statistical processing of market information;
- graphical interpretation of trends in the dynamics of the situation;
- building models of dynamic series of market indicators;
- building a business wave and predicting the development of trends.
It is the Microsoft Excel program that is universal for conducting market research. In addition, software products such as Microsoft Access, Foxpro, and others can be used to create databases for processing business information.
Factor monitoring
Another stage in which an assessment of the market conditions is the monitoring of factors influencing it. As structural elements were identified during such an analysis, therefore, monitoring of factors will determine their influence on these elements. The factors influencing the situation can be divided into macro- and microfactors.
Macro factors include national income, net national income, production indicators by industry groups, indicators of commodity turnover (internal and external), consumption indicators, etc. Indicators reflecting the economic development of individual markets are indicators of microfactors - indicators of production and consumption of products on the market , introduction of new production facilities, etc.
Market Forecasting
The final stage of the analysis of market research is the choice of methods, development and forecasting. The goal is to determine probabilistic estimates of the state of marketing in the future. Prediction is considered to be the result of research. It is it that gives enterprises the opportunity to prepare in advance for changes that may be on the market, as well as take into account their positive impact and negative consequences, and if possible, intervene in its development and control it. As for methodological approaches, scientists approached the problems of market forecasting in different ways. So, for example, F. G. Piskoppel believed that analysis is the foundation of the forecast of conjuncture. He formulated the requirements and characterized the indicators, summarizing the methodology.
According to D. I.Kostyukhina, large and medium-sized companies are interested in knowing the prospects for the development of the industry market, so it involves a systematic long and short-term analysis. At the present stage in the study of market conditions, the branch of forecasting as an independent structural unit of market research is noticeable. So, V. A. Karpov and V. R. Kucherenko made forecasting in the name of their work, therefore, the study of market conditions emphasizes the importance for forecasting.
Forecasting Methods
Important is the choice of forecasting method. According to experts, there are more than 150 of them in the economic literature, although 15-20 are actually used. The whole set of methods according to their degree of formalization can be classified into two groups:
- Heuristic (subjective, intuitive, expert) - the essence of which is that the approaches used to formulate the forecast are not laid out in an explicit form and are inseparable from the person.
- Formalized (economic-mathematical, objective) - in which the approaches to forecasting are clearly stated and can be performed by other people, who will then come to the same forecast.
Heuristic methods include the “commissions” method, the “Delphi” method, the interview method, the scripting method, etc.
Formalized (economic-mathematical) include extrapolation and economic modeling. Methods of extrapolation are based on the hypothesis of preserving existing relationships and their distribution over the predicted time, and methods of economic modeling involve the creation of models for the interaction of various factors that determine market conditions. The economic and mathematical ones that can be used in marketing analysis of the market include deterministic models, as well as stochastic ones, which allow the existence of the influence of random actions on the data under study.
Conclusion
Marketing analysis of the market makes it possible to ensure successful entrepreneurial activity. It consists in the collection of information, its systematization, registration of all information relating to the market for a particular product. Market conditions make it possible to identify real and potential consumers, their purchasing power, as well as the main trends and patterns of the market. The result of the analysis is the development of market forecasts.
