Social risk: types and features

In the course of management, situations arise in which it is necessary to highlight a particular area of ​​activity. In these cases, it takes the form of a target model (program), which is included in the existing organizational structure or a special system is formed for its implementation, or both are performed.

Program: general description

In the process of management, development and subsequent implementation of a set of measures and tasks is ongoing. They have specific content and are aimed at achieving the goal. Social is called such a program in which events are united by common features, projects or their complex, implementation conditions. They are developed according to a certain technology and are used in solving relevant problems related to society. The social program is distinguished by its special content and the presence of an action plan.

The latter sets out the main tasks and goals, the nature of the activities, sets the timelines for implementation, and defines the participants and their role functions. During the implementation of the programs, it is necessary to search for the most optimal solution among their predetermined set. The main difficulty in this case should be considered the fact that the consequences relating to the adoption of a decision will depend on an unknown situation. The level of unacceptability of any outcome is measured in losses that may occur to the one who, in fact, makes the decision. Next, we analyze in more detail the social risks, the concept and types of these dangers.

General information

The word "risk" has French roots. Translated, it means "acting at random", "danger of loss", "calculation of luck." Risk is the likelihood of unwanted deviations from the expected conditions in the future, taking into account which a decision is being made at the present time. The nature of this objective phenomenon is determined by the ambiguity of events that can occur. The risk is associated with damage, loss, lost profits and opportunity.

When these consequences occur, they speak of a practical manifestation of this phenomenon. Up to this point, the risk is considered a hypothetical hazard. Despite the fact that the future is fundamentally unpredictable, a number of expected events can be foreseen with a certain degree of error depending on their nature: uncertain or probabilistic. In the first case, risks can be reduced to situations with a normal (permissible) hazard limit. However, this is possible if it is possible to reduce uncertainty to a certain level.

Social risks: concept and types

The likelihood of a danger to society implies a threat of violation of the normal position for this group of people. Social risk is caused by unremovable reasons, which are rooted in its very concrete historical structure. A socially significant violation can be recognized as a significant deviation from the established norm of any or several important parameters of the position of one or another group of people.

Types of Social Risks

Classification is carried out according to various criteria. So, depending on the nature of responsibility, there are subjective and objective types of social risks. The former provide for consequences directly for developers or implementers of programs. Objective social risk is associated with external influences and involves delays (stops) during the implementation of the project. According to the source of occurrence, hazards are distinguished:

1. Natural and climatic.
2. Technical (failure of equipment and machines, deterioration in the quality of their functioning).
3. Production (process shutdowns, technology violations, delays in the supply of raw materials and so on).
4. Socio-economic (risks associated with higher prices, higher costs, inflationary processes).
5. Financial (interest, currency, credit).
6. Political (risks associated with a change of leader, development priorities, legislative changes).
7. Innovative (failure to achieve the results that are expected when introducing new projects).
8. Country (related to the difference in mentality, customs, national territorial traditions).

According to the place of manifestation, social risk can be external or internal. By type of production, auxiliary and main hazards are distinguished. Given the severity of the manifestations, damage (highest severity), loss (medium level), lost profit (least degree) are determined. Depending on the form of impact on society, direct and indirect risks are distinguished. The complexity index classifies the aggregate (due to several chains of phenomena), system (caused by one chain of events), private (arising as a result of one situation).

Depending on the nature of the causes, social risk may be malicious or accidental. Regularity distinguish systematic and unsystematic hazards. Social risk can be predicted with a high, low, or zero probability. Depending on the period of manifestation, past, future and present are distinguished, according to the degree of manifestation - strong, moderate and weak, by intensity - slow, medium and fast. Depending on the possibility of security, social insurance risks and unprotected guarantees are allocated. In accordance with the possibility of applying regulation, uncontrolled, partially or fully controlled, are distinguished.

Category classification

AT society traditionally The following social risk groups are distinguished:

1. Persons without a fixed place of residence.
2. Prostitutes.
3. Alcoholics.
4. Addicts.
5. Orphans and so on.

In order to carry out high-quality work with them, it is necessary to develop appropriate targeted programs and create systems for managing social risks. With a competent approach, these measures will ensure the implementation of the task of reducing the likely public danger.

Specificity

The concept of social risk assumes a different nature of its occurrence. In particular, dangers can appear and reproduce due to various reasons. These, for example, include natural disaster, revolution, epidemic, war, population explosion, coup d'etat and so on. Features of social risks are that, firstly, they arise in society not in emergency, but, as a rule, in ordinary conditions of development of society.

They are formed not by chance, but naturally, accompanying the normal formation of public life. In addition, at their core they have the usual basic relationships between people, everyday, regular, normal orders. Due to the fact that the device from its own essence generates social risk factors, society develops and improves the system of protection against them. To a greater extent, this task is implemented by the state.

Characteristic

Social risk is the possibility of material insecurity due to loss of earnings or labor income due to objective and socially significant reasons. He also recognizes the likelihood of the need for additional costs for services and treatment. Insecurity due to unemployment, disability, illness, as a result of which a citizen is not able to participate in production turnover and thus is deprived of wages, is an accidental phenomenon for an individual.

On the whole, for the economy these events are constant and massive. In connection with this circumstance, probable dangers are exposed to forecasting and quantitative assessment.In this case, different approaches are used: from the standpoint of the probability of situations (the number of pensioners, patients, deaths, invalids, etc.), from the cost indicators (retirement age, for example).

Main danger

It is not possible in most cases to protect oneself independently with a high level of reliability from social risks arising from social causes. The danger is predetermined by a rather complex set of conditions and almost do not depend on the will of a particular person. The mutual responsibility of people for their livelihoods within the framework of society and the state gives rise to the need to establish criteria for an acceptable, normal social status of the population in the event of certain social risks. With a significant deviation from the norm, provoked by one danger, the situation is recognized as abnormal. In this case, people require protection, provision with social guarantees. They, in turn, act as positive values ​​that neutralize the consequences of the onset of danger.

Security

From the above it can be concluded that social risk is a factor in the violation of a stable normal social situation that has arisen due to health damage, disability or unemployment. It is always accompanied by losses:

• For the able-bodied population - material insecurity.
• For a sick person - additional treatment costs.
• For a family of social risk - the loss of a source of livelihood with the loss of a breadwinner, and so on.

Due to the fact that public danger is objective in nature, mechanisms of protection against them must be reliable. In other words, risk insurance should be compulsory and cover the entire working population. At the same time, the burden of financial responsibility should be jointly and severally borne by the main actors - employers and workers. The share of partners may be different. However, in each country, the government seeks to find the optimal balance of financial responsibility depending on specific spiritual and cultural traditions, socio-economic conditions.

Probability analysis

It can be divided into two types:

1. Quantitative analysis. Due to it, it becomes possible to identify the numerical sizes of the relative risks of the program and all the consequences of its implementation as a whole.
2. Qualitative analysis. It allows you to identify risk factors, stages, and measures during the implementation of which they appear. Thanks to this work, it is possible to establish potential danger zones and identify the probabilities themselves.

Quantitative method

Today its three varieties are applied:

1. Sensitivity analysis. It is performed in two stages:

• a description of the environment (forecast of changes in the exchange rate, inflation, tax rates, cost of raw materials and so on);
• selection of indicators of greatest importance to the program.

At the second stage, constant fixed values ​​are obtained during the analysis. Separately, for each indicator, a performance calculation is performed. As a result, the base case is determined. The results of other calculations are subsequently compared with him.

2. Scenario analysis. It is based on the fact that between certain indicators there is a mutual relationship, which allows for their simultaneous change. This method allows you to develop an optimistic and pessimistic outcome of development, taking into account the most significant parameters.

3. Analysis of models. Using it, different models of program development and implementation are evaluated. In the framework of this method, the entire complex of probable risks is divided into manageable fragments, in relation to which an opinion is made about the possibility of manifestation and the severity of the consequences. For each perceived danger, a model is built - a likely outcome.

Hazard reduction

This method involves reducing the probability and reducing the volume of possible losses. The following methods are used within it:

• Transfer - transfer of responsibility to the other side (insurance company, mainly).
• Avoidance - avoiding circumstances or activities that pose a potential danger.
• Reduction - the implementation of its own special measures to reduce the risk, the formation of special systems to prevent damage.
• Retention - retention of responsibility for consequences, ability and willingness to cover all probable costs with one’s own funds.

Protection

It can be provided:

1. Insurance. This is a special activity that is associated with the redistribution or reduction of risks between citizens and specialized organizations.
2. Hedging. It is a system of derivatives transactions and contracts that take into account the likelihood of exchange rate and price changes that carry risk in the future.
3. Distribution of responsibility between participants.
4. Guarantees - written obligations of a third party to cover losses in the event of risk cases. This may be an obligation that is provided for in the contract or law. By virtue of this provision, a person is partially or fully responsible to the creditor.
5. Limitation - the establishment of certain limits for spending amounts.
6. Reserve Fund. It is formed to cover unforeseen costs related to the development and further implementation of the program.