We hear from time to time that the crisis in Russia is gaining momentum. There are many opinions on this. They discuss the sources and causes of its formation, development, probable ways out. And people can only hopefully listen to specialists with sufficient competence to reason on this topic. Let's try to put everything together. Why did the crisis in Russia happen and what to do with it?
Reasons for the current state of affairs
Do not assume that the situation arose only for political reasons. Some experts unreasonably claim that the annexation of Crimea caused a crisis in Russia. Most likely, in a few years it will become clear that this was the beginning of its end. It is impossible to consider the current state of affairs in isolation from the past. It is worthless for specialists to forget that the crisis in Russia, as well as throughout the world, began not yesterday, but back in 2008. Then, as M. Khazin explains, the fall in stock markets was caused by overwhelming debts in the construction sector.
The modern economy is very complex. It is very different from natural. For each element of a physical product, many financial obligations are wound. It is very difficult to calculate them so that potential payers cope with their obligations. And any mistake leads to a domino effect. So everything is interconnected. The Fed, for example, lowers the rate (this was done at the end of 2015), the result is a deflationary wave that has swept the entire planet. In this regard, the value of real assets decreases, as a result - the income of the population. That is, the crisis in Russia (experts' opinion on this issue is unambiguous) has been ongoing since 2008, as elsewhere.
Economy
To understand the causes of the crisis, it is necessary to pay attention to the structure of the country's production. In the Russian Federation there are certain difficulties in this area. The point here, according to experts, is high oil revenues. For a long time, this industry gave so much money to the budget and entrepreneurs that it was unprofitable to develop other industries. It is cheaper to import goods from abroad. But in 2014, oil prices began to plummet. Some believe that this is what caused the economic crisis in Russia. The ruble began to become cheaper, which affected the welfare of the population. After all, most of the goods were bought for currency. Prices began to rise, some goods had to be abandoned or replaced with lower-quality items. The leadership of the Russian Federation has proposed a course on import substitution. This requires money and people who want to create production. That is, it is necessary to rebuild the structure of the economy. It takes time.
Currency crisis in Russia
Foreign experts believe that the price of black gold is the main cause of adverse events in the country. The ruble is tied to the price of oil. The latter entered the stage of decline. On the world market there is an overproduction of black gold, which leads to its cheapening. Experts estimate what will happen to the budget of the Russian Federation if they give 10-12 dollars per barrel. Their findings are disappointing. They predict a further drop in GDP and the purchasing power of the population. Nevertheless, by the end of 2015, the Russian Federation still remains in fifth place in the global economic rating, which does not confirm the conclusions of foreign gurus. However, there are few reasons for optimism. No one predicts a serious strengthening of the ruble in 2016. On the contrary, the same M. Khazin speaks of his further weakening. It is likely, the expert suggests, that we will see a rate of 90 rubles per dollar or more.
The essence of the crisis in Russia
When discussing this topic, specialists use so many specific terms that a simple person cannot understand. Let's try to translate their smart speeches. The essence of the current situation in the economy is that it is tightly connected with the world. Goods are not produced at home, but are bought abroad. And not just consumer ones. Many things are done at our enterprises. For their manufacture, components are needed that are also brought from abroad. And the ruble has fallen in price. This leads to a rise in price of those goods that are produced locally. It is difficult to name such an industry (rather, it does not exist at all) that would work on everything domestic. The essence of the crisis in one word is globalization. We are sitting in the same boat, on the bow of which is piled the nineteen-trillion debt of one good country. Russia cannot jump and row separately, it will drown. We have to adapt, losing income, but maintaining the country.
What does the US national debt have to do with it?
We repeat the magic word that explains everything that happens. This is "globalization." From the point of view of economic relations, the world does not consist of separate states, it is one. Most payments are made in hegemonic currency. If he accidentally falls into the abyss, then there will be real chaos in the world. We can purchase products - if it is easier to explain - only those that will be at the moment in the store. They will not bring new ones, since the entrepreneur will not be able to pay for them.
And such a situation will be in all countries. Banks work through the well-known SWIFT system. And the server is in the USA. There will be chaos, it will cover the whole planet. Therefore, a slow but persistent work is underway to untie the BRICS countries from SWIFT and the USA. But far from complete victory. Moreover, each country has a treasury (US debt). And no one wants to refuse this money. And in order to get them back, it is necessary to support the hegemon for some time, until he takes up the solution of his problems.
Different point of view
The publicist A. I. Fursov also investigated the topic “Causes of the Crisis in Russia”. He looks at this problem from a different perspective. Fursov believes that the crisis in the Russian Federation is systemic. These words mean that the old control mechanism has lost effectiveness. It is necessary to change everything that does not imply a mandatory revolution. New ideas are just needed. A system is the laws by which a society develops. It includes power, education, economics and people. They interact with each other in a certain way. It is this mechanism that needs to be changed. Remember what happened after the October Revolution. Then the property as such changed its owner. Approximately such changes (but not just these) are meant by Andrei Ilyich. Other ways of relations between the parties to the social contract should arise and develop. And this is apparently a long wait.
What can an ordinary person expect?
The reader is probably interested in when the crisis in Russia will end. We must believe that the time will come, and even during our lifetime. Foreign experts, along with home economists, promise that improvements will come in 2017. To believe them? Have they at least once guessed in which direction the price of oil will change? Recommended to check. Better yet, look out the window. Is there a devastation? Go to the store: the shelves are empty? Look in your wallet: enough to get paid? So is this a crisis? Dissenters are encouraged to study the history of the country fluently. In it you will find a description of real crises. And what we are experiencing today is the problem of the transition to a different structure of the world economy. This has not happened before. Because no one will say how long it will last. There is no such specialist on the planet yet.
