In the article we will consider the concept of "probability of an accidental event." It is known that in various spheres of human activity there are phenomena that cannot be accurately predicted. So, for example, the sales volume of products depends both on the very changing needs of customers, and on other nuances that are not possible to take into account. That is why, creating production and making sales, owners have to predict the outcome of their activities on the basis of either personal experience or a similar skill of other people.
To evaluate the event in question, it is necessary to take into account or specially create the conditions in which it is recorded. Such actions are called experience or experiment. In his process, there are possible episodes that are called random, if in the end they can take place or not take place, as well as reliable phenomena that arise as a result of practice.
We study the probability of an event using examples. For example, the snowfall in Moscow on November 25 is considered a random episode. Everyday sunrise is a reliable phenomenon, and snowfall at the equator of snow is considered an impossible curiosity. One of the most important tasks in probability theory is the problem of determining a quantitative measure of the possibility of an event occurring.
Probability
Probability is the degree (quantitative assessment, relative measure) of the possibility of the occurrence of an event. When the grounds for a possible occurrence in reality to be outweighed by contrasting arguments, this case is called probable. Otherwise, it is called doubtful or incredible.
The preponderance of the negative basis over the positive one, and vice versa, can be in varying degrees, due to which the inadmissibility (or admissibility) is less or greater. For this reason, the probability of an event is often perceived at a first-class level, especially in those passages where it is extremely difficult or impossible to give a precise quantitative assessment. Of course, different gradations of chance levels are feasible.
Probability analysis
By the way, the probability of independent events has special parameters. And probing a chance from a mathematical position complements a specific discipline - probability theory. In this teaching and mathematical statistics, the concept of admissibility is officialized as a numerical description of the episode (a probabilistic measure or its meaning).
In fact, this is a measure on many cases (subsets of many elementary phenomena), acquiring values from 0 to 1:
- a value of 1 corresponds to a valid episode;
- an impossible fact has a zero chance (the converse is almost always false).
If the occurrence of the phenomenon is p, then the risk of inertness is 1-p. Say, probability ½ means the same possibility of occurrence and non-occurrence of the case.
Chance Statement
Test, event, probability - these variables are tightly bound by science. A typical definition of chance is based on the notion of equiprobability of outcomes.
The ratio of the number of finals contributing to this event to the total number of equally possible endings is an opportunity. For example, the admissibility of a “tails” or an “eagle” falling out if an unintentional tossing of a penny is 1/2, if it is calculated that only these two paths are equally probable.
This classic definition of chance can be generalized to the case of an inexhaustible number of potential values.For example, if any phenomenon can occur with equal admissibility at any point (the number of points is unlimited) of some local region of the plane (space), then the risk that it will occur in a certain part of this acceptable sphere corresponds to the ratio of the area (volume) of this part to the area (volume) of the area of all possible points.
Connecting link
The probability of an event can be determined empirically. This is due to the frequency of the onset of the episode based on the fact that with an impressive number of tests, the frequency should pursue an objective degree of possibility of this precedent.
In the current presentation of probability theory, chance is revealed axiomatically, as a particular fact of the abstract theory of measure of a set. However, between the admissibility expressing the degree of reality of the occurrence of the phenomenon and the abstract measure, the link is precisely the frequency of its tracking.
Of course, the probability of occurrence of an event in various processes is possible. A stochastic interpretation of certain phenomena is widely spread in modern science, in particular in econometrics, statistical physics of thermodynamic (visible) systems, where even in the case of a deterministic classical description of particle motion, a concrete description of their entire structure does not seem expedient and practically possible. In quantum physics, the characterized processes themselves have a stochastic nature.
Random event
Of course, the probability of occurrence of an event in each uncontrolled process is high. What is a contingency? This is a subset of the many outcomes of an accidental experiment. If a random investigation is repeated many times, the frequency of occurrence of a fact serves as an assessment of its admissibility. 
An involuntary phenomenon that never happens as a result of an involuntary experiment is called impossible. A random episode, which is always realized as a result of an unexpected experiment, is called reliable. And how is the probability of independent events characterized? It is known that two random facts are called independent if the appearance of one of them does not change the admissibility of the appearance of the other.
A random event is a regular event that is created by generating involuntary functions with substitution of random variables into variables. The ordinary function of generating a lottery number is performed by computer tools.
Definition
A mathematically random episode is a subset of the space of elementary outcomes of an involuntary trial. This is an element of sigma-algebra or algebra - F, which in turn is set self-evidently and together with the space of the simplest phenomena "Omega" and probability P forms a probability space.
Background to the concept of chance
The probability of an accidental event has often been investigated. In general, the emergence of the concept of chance has historically been associated with gambling, especially dice. Before the emergence of this concept, the combinatorial tasks of calculating the number of potential outcomes when throwing a pair of dice were mainly outlined, as well as the issue of bet distribution between participants when the game ended ahead of schedule.
Bishop Vibold of the city of Cambrai in 960 decided the first rebus when throwing three dice. He counted 56 species. However, this number in fact does not reproduce the sum of equally possible methods, because each of their 56 versions can be carried out by a different number of receptions.
The probability of an accidental event was studied in the first half of the 13th century by Richard de Fornival. Despite the fact that he also mentions the number 56, he reflects in thought that the identical number of points on three bones can be obtained by six methods.
Based on his reasoning, it is already possible to establish that the number of equally accessible options is 216. Subsequently, many did not solve this problem quite correctly.For the first time, Gallileo Galilei calculated the number of equally accessible outcomes when throwing three bones: he raised the six (the number of versions of a single bone loss) to degree 3 (the number of bones). He also compiled a table of the number of options for extracting various amounts of points.
We hope that our article fully acquainted you with the probability of a random event.
